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Economic and Business Research Center
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Economic Forecast

Arizona's Outlook

Evidence continues to grow that the U.S. economy bottomed out during the second quarter – likely in June, maybe May.  In Arizona, economic measures remain on a downward trend, confirming our expectation that the state will lag behind the rest of the country.  In our annual update of long-term projections, we’ve lowered our forecasts for 30 years hence, but we still foresee population nearly doubling. Read more.

* all numbers & analysis from EBR's August 2009 forecast (next forecast update: December 2009).

Economic Forecasts

Arizona

  2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014
2015
Personal Income ($ mill)
209,848.2
210,011.5
217,706.4
231,683.3
248,724.2
266,483.9
284,177.4
% change
-1.9
0.1
3.7
6.4
7.4
7.1
6.6
Wage per Employee
45,517
46,244
47,135
48,211
49,534
50,958
52,445
% change
2.5
1.6
1.9
2.3
2.7
2.9
2.9
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)*
69,640.9
75,356.9
83,452.7
88,827.6
94,490.2
100,031.8
106,317.8
% change
-11.3
8.2
10.7
6.4
6.4
5.9
6.3
Population 000s, mid-year)
6,571.0
6,658.5
6,788.5
6,941.0
7,110.6
7,288.7
7,467.9
% change
1.1
1.3
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.5
Residential Permits
11,333
19,894
35,679
47,703
58,466
64,071
64,819
% change
-54.6
75.5
79.3
33.7
22.6
9.6
1.2
Non Farm Employment (000s)
2,446.6
2,385.6
2,418.1
2,511.7
2,636.9
2,756.6
2,861.6
% change
-6.5
-2.5
1.4
3.9
5.0
4.5
3.8
Goods-Producing
301.6
266.6
261.1
279.9
312.4
342.3
361.5
% change
-19.0
-11.6
-2.0
7.2
11.6
9.5
5.6
Service-Providing
2,144.9
2,119.1
2,157.1
2,232.0
2,324.6
2,414.5
2,500.3
% change
-4.4
-1.2
1.8
3.5
4.2
3.9
3.6
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
480.3
467.8
475.9
495.8
518.2
537.9
556.3
% change
-6.8
-2.6
1.8
4.2
4.5
3.8
3.4
Prof. & Business Services
344.5
328.0
331.2
346.4
369.3
392.5
413.1
% change
-10.8
-4.8
1.0
4.6
6.6
6.3
5.2
Leisure & Hospitality
263.1
263.3
272.0
285.2
296.5
306.0
315.9
% change
-2.7
0.1
3.3
4.8
4.0
3.2
3.2
Government
428.1
424.4
421.4
425.5
435.5
444.9
454.3
% change
-1.1
-0.9
-0.7
1.0
2.4
2.2
2.1

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of  Management, The University of Arizona

* all numbers & analysis from EBR's August 2009 forecast (next forecast update: December 2009).

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Phoenix-Mesa Metro Area

  2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Personal Income ($ mill)
144,621.6
144,646.5
150,683.8
161,859.8
174,343.8
186,558.2
198,514.4
% change
-3.0
0.0
4.2
7.4
7.7
7.0
6.4
Wage per Employee 
49,649
51,022
52,502
53,967
55,463
56,914
58,438
% change
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.7
Aggregate Retail Sales ($mill)* 
47,351.0
52,004.3
56,353.9
61,059.2
65,129.2
68,609.7
71,931.1
% change
-11.9
9.8
8.4
8.3
6.7
5.3
4.8
Population (000s,mid-year)
4,331.5
4,409.0
4,514.5
4,639.2
4,772.7
4,907.2
5,040.5
% change
1.2
1.8
2.4
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.7
Residential Permits
8,579
11,254
22,029
31,564
37,926
41,305
40,811
% change
-53.7
31.2
95.7
43.3
20.2
8.9
-1.2
Non Farm Employment (000s)
1,733.6
1,677.8
1,699.7
1,780.1
1,877.1
1,967.2
2,043.3
% change
-7.2
-3.2
1.3
4.7
5.5
4.8
3.9
 Goods-Producing
217.7
184.3
178.4
195.1
220.1
238.7
248.9
% change
-19.8
-15.3
-3.2
9.4
12.8
8.5
4.3
Service-Providing 
1,515.9
1,493.4
1,521.3
1,585.0
1,657.1
1,728.5
1,794.4
% change 
-5.1
-1.5
1.9
4.2
4.5
4.3
3.8
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
358.6
343.5
349.3
367.5
386.7
402.6
417.2
% change
-6.6
-4.2
1.7
5.2
5.2
4.1
3.6
 Prof. & Business Services
275.1
266.1
266.1
279.1
295.5
315.6
332.2
% change
-11.7
-3.2
0.0
4.9
5.9
6.8
5.2
Leisure & Hospitality
181.3
180.9
187.8
197.6
206.2
213.4
220.8
% change
-2.1
-0.2
3.8
5.2
4.3
3.5
3.5
Government 
238.7
235.7
234.6
238.7
246.3
253.0
259.1
% change
-3.1
-1.3
-0.5
1.7
3.2
2.7
2.4

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of  Management, The University of Arizona

* all numbers & analysis from EBR's August 2009 forecast (next forecast update: December 2009).

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Tucson Metro Area

Tucson Metro Area 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Personal Income($mill)
32,901.7
33,295.5
35,046.0
37,858.4
40,495.3
42,710.5
44,700.7
% change
0.1
1.2
5.3
8.0
7.0
5.5
4.7
Wage per employee
40,772
41,513
42,336
43,297
44,629
46,002
47,380
% change
1.4
1.8
2.0
2.3
3.1
3.1
3.0
Aggregate Retail Sales ($ mill)* 
10,352.9
10,870.1
11,933.6
13,122.9
14,165.3
14,779.0
15,459.8
% change
-10.1
5.0
9.8
10.0
7.9
4.3
4.6
Population (000s,mid-year)
1,018.0
1,032.9
1,059.1
1,093.2
1,125.3
1,151.9
1,173.9
% change
0.6
1.5
2.5
3.2
2.9
2.4
1.9
Residential Permits
1,788
4,970
8,892
11,684
11,000
9,052
7,457
% change
-44.5
178.0
78.9
31.4
-5.9
-17.7
-17.6
Non Farm Employment(000s)
365.9
361.9
373.2
395.5
415.1
427.3
433.5
% change
-4.1
-1.1
3.1
6.0
5.0
2.9
1.4
Goods-Producing
44.8
42.2
45.3
52.0
57.4
58.6
56.6
% change
-13.0
-5.8
7.2
14.8
10.3
2.2
-3.4
Service-Providing
321.1
319.6
327.9
343.5
357.8
368.7
376.9
% change
-2.7
-0.5
2.6
4.8
4.1
3.1
2.2
Trade, Trans., & Utilities
58.5
57.9
59.4
62.6
65.2
67.0
68.6
% change
-6.1
-1.1
2.7
5.3
4.1
2.9
2.4
Prof. & Business Services
47.1
45.3
45.3
48.1
52.2
55.5
57.4
% change
-8.0
-3.9
0.1
6.2
8.4
6.3
3.4
Leisure & Hospitality
38.6
38.7
40.3
42.7
44.5
46.0
47.3
% change
-3.3
0.2
4.1
5.9
4.3
3.3
2.9
Government
79.9
78.8
79.9
82.2
84.1
85.2
86.1
% change
-0.5
-1.3
1.4
2.9
2.3
1.4
1.0

* Aggregate Retail Sales includes retail, food, restaurant & bars and gasoline sales.
Source: Economic and Business Research Center, Eller College of  Management, The University of Arizona

* all numbers & analysis from EBR's August 2009 forecast (next forecast update: December 2009).

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