Current Indicators
Current Indicators provides the most recent updates for important economic measures impacting Arizona's economy.
View updates for key economic indicators
Please select a category to retrieve the most recent data and graphs for Arizona, Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA, and Tucson MSA. Summaries of recent changes and trends for each variable are provided below.
Employment/Job Growth
Unemployment
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Average Hours Worked
Wages/Earnings
Personal Income
Population
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Price Index
Retail Sales
Housing Permits
Deterioration in labor markets moderated significantly in fourth quarter 2009, with total nonfarm employment for Arizona declining at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of only 1%. This compared to the dramatic declines of the last quarter of 2008 and first quarter 2009, of 8.4% and of 9.4%, respectively. However, Arizona is still down some 276,100 jobs from the peak in December 2007.
The U.S. unemployment rate declined from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January and nonfarm payroll employment remained essentially unchanged (-20,000) according to preliminary estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics today.
January unemployment figures will not be available for Arizona until later this month. However, preliminary figures show Arizona's December unemployment rate at 9.1%, up slightly from 8.9% in November, but still down from its record peak of 9.3% in September and October. In June of 2007, Arizona's unemployment rate was 3.6%. While the unemployment rate in Arizona has followed the national trend, throughout this recession Arizona's unemployment rate has remained below the national figure. Arizona is in the middle of the pack nationally, ranking 28th among the states.
Initial unemployment insurance claims for Arizona, an excellent leading indicator, continued to decline in November at an seasonally adjusted annual rate of 397,115. Claims in Arizona soared in the first quarter 2009 to a record setting seasonally adjusted annual rate of 463,214, while the November figure represents a 19% decline from that earlier peak, it is still nearly double initial claim figures registered during 2007.
Average hours worked in manufacturing for Arizona, considered a leading indicator,declined by 0.5 % in December 2009, this after beginning a rebound in October and November. However for this historically volatile series, the seasonally adjusted trend-cycle series yields more relevant information. This adjusted series saw no change in December and gives evidence of having bottomed-outand at 6.1% below the figures reached during 2006-2007 and represents a record low.
Total wages and salary issued in Arizona declined by only 0.34% in the third quarter, levelling out from the dramatic decline seen in the first quarter o2009 of 3.57%. wages are still down 5.6% from where they were a year ago.
The average wage rate was $46,000, having risen by 1.2% in the third quarter, and is up 2.75% for the year. One caveat, however, for using this figure as a measure of economic health, is that, when unemployment is high, nonfarm employment, which is the denominator used to compute the wage rate, gets smaller, thus inflating the wage rate.
After a dramatic decline of 2.1% in during first quarter 2009 (-8.1% compound annual rate), total personal income for Arizona experienced a decline of only 0.03% in third quarter 2009. This figure is down 3.2% from the historic high reached in second quarter of 2008.
Since Arizona's population has grown faster than any state in the Union except Utah, Arizona's per capita personal income has seen even more dramatic declines, falling at a whopping 9.1% compound annual rate in first quarter 2009. These declines have also moderated with per capita personal income declining only 0.02% and 0.22% in the second third quarters 2009, repsectively.
Arizona continues to be the second fastest growing state in the Union behind only Utah. Arizona's population grew 0.34% in Second quarter 2009, up 1.57% from a year ago.
After rising from 44.2 in January of 2009 to 60.2 in September, the Arizona Consumer Confidence Index again declined to 50.2 during 4th quarter 2009. The Arizona Consumer Confidence Index is estimated by the Behavior Research Center, Inc. from Rocky Mountain Poll survey results based on 800 interviews with adult heads of household statewide. These results were collected between January 7 and 22, 2010. In Maricopa County the Index declined from 58.0 in September to 52.2 in January, and in Pima County the index stood at 48.6 down from 66.9.
While in Arizona consumer confidence has declined, The Conference Board's National Consumer Confidence Index rose to 55.9 (released January 26, 2010), a modest increase from 53.6 in December, and is the third straight month to see improvement. While this number signals an improvement, it is still a relatively dismal number. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 per cent of U.S. economic activity and it takes a reading of 100 or more to indicate growth.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the December Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on January 15, 2009. While the unadjusted index declined by 0.2 percent in December, it has increased 2.7 percent from December of last year.
Aggregate retail sales for Arizona increased by 1.8% in November 2009, after seasonal adjustment, for an annual rate of $71.5 bil. This is series is extremely volatile, so examining seasonally adjusted, smoothed (trend-cycle) version is helpful. This smoothed has improved steadily since bottoming out in May 2009, however it is still 14.8% below the phigh reached in february of 2007.
After seasonal adjustment, total housing permits issued in Arizona increased by 24.3% in December 2009 for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 21,436. Declines in permits issued levelled off in September and rebounded through the fourth quarter. Permits are up by 90% from historic lows reached a year ago. Permits declined dramatically during the 2006- 2008, timeframe from their historic highs in 2004 and 2005. In January of 2006 permits peaked at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 100,031. Housing permits are considered a leading indicator.
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