Eller Economic Outlook Presentation 2017

December 08, 2017
George W. Hammond, Ph.D., EBRC Director and Research Professor

Economic Outlook 2017 Luncheon Presentation in PDF

Presented December 8th, 2017 at the Westin La Paloma in Tucson, Arizona.

The buzz about the Tucson economy is strong, with many more firms announcing plans to add jobs here than there were in 2016. But while the buzz is strong, actual job growth in 2017 has been mediocre.

In 2016, Tucson posted the fastest job growth since 2012. Even so, growth was slow compared to peer metropolitan areas, Arizona and the nation. Most new jobs were in service-providing sectors. In an encouraging development, manufacturing added more than 600 jobs last year, driven by gains in the high-paying aerospace sector. Where will job growth be next year? Will announcements of job increase translated into faster employment gains?

The U.S. dollar has lost ground to the Mexican peso lately but remains stubbornly high. The strong dollar is weighing on Arizona’s exports to Mexico, our most important trading partner. Will the dollar continue to fade next year against the peso? When will that translate into improved export performance?

While the U.S. economy continues to grind out growth, monetary policy is transitioning and fiscal policy seems poised for change. What’s next for the stock market, monetary policy, fiscal policy? What will the new political environment mean for future U.S. and global growth?

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